Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Economics

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Global Elections

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

United States

Turkey

China

South Korea

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

People wave flags and chant slogans during a protest in front of the municipality headquarters in support of arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on March 19, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey. 

Global Trade

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. To Announce Tariffs, Protests in Turkey Rage On

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Australia

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers a speech in parliament on the government's newly unveiled 2025-26 budget on March 25, 2025, in Canberra, Australia.

Unveiled just ahead of May elections, the budget marks a pivot to resource-driven growth, U.S.-aligned defense integration and domestic industrial development, but its durability will be tested.

Reading Between the Lines of Australia's 2025-26 Budget

People in Istanbul, Turkey, walk past a currency exchange board showing the Turkish lira, which fell to historic lows against the dollar upon the news of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's arrest on March 19, 2025. 

Extensive foreign exchange sales have so far kept the Turkish lira relatively stable, but this is a high-risk strategy as it could eventually force Ankara to allow for significant exchange rate depreciation.

Turkey's Efforts To Stabilize Markets Amid Protests May Not Be Sustainable

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 27, 2025

Italy

Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Italy's Minister of the Environment and Energy Security, discusses a new draft law on nuclear energy with the press at Palazzo Chigi on Feb. 28, 2025, in Rome, Italy. 

Reintroducing nuclear power could enhance Italy's energy security, industrial competitiveness and economic growth, but major political and technical hurdles make a nuclear comeback unlikely in the next decade.

The Challenges Facing Italy's Nuclear Comeback

The skyline of Kigali, Rwanda, is seen on March 27, 2024.

The region's population dynamics will remain favorable in the context of strong labor force growth and declining dependency ratios.

The Economic Potential of Sub-Saharan Africa's Population Growth

Escorted by riot police, students burn flares on March 24, 2025, as they march along the streets of Istanbul, Turkey, in support of the city's mayor after he was arrested on corruption charges. 

The protests will likely last for several more weeks following the arrest of Erdogan's top rival, but unless organizers can tap into other grievances, the movement eventually risks losing momentum.

Assessing the Pro-Democracy Protests in Turkey and Their Threat to Erdogan

New Zealand

India

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) walks with New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (R) before their meeting at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on March 17, 2025. 

U.S. tariff threats are pushing India to revamp negotiations over free trade agreements, but protectionist trade policies and other obstacles will challenge the progression of talks.

India Dusts Off Old FTA Negotiations Ahead of U.S. Tariffs

Cambodia

Thailand

The Ta Moan Thom temple is seen on the border between Thailand and Cambodia.

While full-scale military conflict is unlikely, the dispute risks spurring localized border clashes, as both Cambodia and Thailand maintain entrenched military positions with no clear legal resolution.

Thai-Cambodian Tensions Flare Over Disputed Temple, Raising Fears of Clashes

Saudi Arabia

Participants attend the annual Future Investment Initiative (FII) conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 29, 2024. 

The kingdom is increasingly likely to continue to scale back less viable megaprojects while focusing on successful reforms.

As the Finish Line Approaches, Saudi Arabia Dials Back Its Vision 2030 Ambitions

Latest

Canada

A "Canada First" rally addressed by Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre on Feb. 15 the at the Rogers Center in Ottawa, Canada.

The Liberal Party will most likely win enough seats to form a government -- a stunning turnaround since former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Jan. 6 resignation.

Canada's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

French far-right Leader Marine Le Pen leaves the courtroom after a guilty verdict in her embezzlement case trial on March 31, 2025 in Paris, France. 

Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling EU funds and an immediate five-year ban from public office has shaken French politics, threatening government stability and fueling far-right outrage ahead of the 2027 election.

Le Pen's Five-Year Political Ban Sets the Stage for Renewed Political Instability in France

Bolivia

Morales supporters march against the Arce government and denounce the economic crisis Jan. 13 in La Paz, Bolivia. The crisis will fuel political instability ahead of the country's August presidential election amid shortages of dollars and fuel.

The crisis will fuel political instability ahead of the country's August presidential election amid shortages of dollars and fuel.

Bolivia's Socioeconomic Crisis Will Spiral Ahead of Its Presidential Election

Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addresses the Bundestag on March 18, 2025, before a vote on changes to the country's constitutional debt limits.

The historic reform will allow for increased investment and higher defense spending, which will help raise medium-term economic growth in both Germany and the euro area. 

The Economic Impact of Germany's Debt Brake Reform

Columns

On Geopolitics

Mexico

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Syria

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

Taiwan

Vietnam

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

The Chinese army's Eastern Theater Command announced on its website on April 1 that it was conducting military exercises around Taiwan, with varied operational foci, including "blocking key areas and roads."

China, Taiwan: Latest Drill Practices Blockade in Response to Lai's '17 Strategies' 

South Korea’s Constitutional Court announced that it would make a final decision on the impeachment case against President Yoon Suk Yeol on April 4, with the decision due to be broadcast live, the Korean Broadcasting System reported on April 1.

South Korea: Court Decision on Yoon's Impeachment Due April 4, Police Prepare 

Peru

The Peruvian government launched a package of 402 measures to reduce bureaucracy, increase business efficiency and boost investment, Infobae reported March 31.

Peru: Deregulation Push to Marginally Improve Business Environment Despite Lingering Political Risks

The United Kingdom's Prime Minister Keir Starmer instructed his Cabinet to prepare for imminent U.S. tariffs on British exports after last-minute negotiations with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump failed to secure an exemption, the Financial Times reported on April 1.

U.K.: London Unlikely To Escape U.S. Tariffs, But Negotiations Will Continue

Russia's Arctic LNG 2 plant resumed flaring around March 30, which may indicate that the facility has resumed processing natural gas, though gas exports did not immediately resume, Reuters reported on April 1, citing satellite images published the same day. 

Russia: Arctic LNG 2 Terminal Resumes Flaring

The Russian government ordered the conscription of 160,000 men by July 15, the highest target in 14 years, The Moscow Times reported on March 31.

Russia: Moscow Orders Highest Conscription Since 2011

Niger

Niger announced its withdrawal from the Multinational Joint Task Force, or MNJTF, a coalition established in 2015 to combat militant groups in the Lake Chad basin, Radio France Internationale reported on March 31. 

Niger: Government Announces Withdrawal From Regional Joint Force

Japan's Diet passed a 115.2 trillion yen ($767.7 billion) budget for 2025 on the last day of the 2024 fiscal year, The Asahi Shimbun reported on March 31.

Japan: Diet Passes Budget, Shows Policymaking Slowdown and Prime Minister's Stakes 

Science & Technology

Brazil

Iran

Lebanon

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference Feb. 16 at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Senior Israeli officials from the security and intelligence ministries will visit the United States to discuss Iran's nuclear program and Israeli border demarcation talks with Lebanon.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Israel Coordinate on Iran, the U.K. Chancellor Seeks Fiscal Discipline

South Sudan

Sudan

Uganda

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (right) waves as he arrives in Nairobi, Kenya, on May 9, 2024, for the launch of new peace talks with rebel groups.

Rising political tensions risk collapsing the peace deal that ended the country's last civil war, while escalating clashes in the north risk drawing in involvement from Sudan's warring parties.

South Sudan Hurtles Toward Another Civil War

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

United Arab Emirates

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Syria's provisional government announced a new transitional government that included minorities, former government officials, exiles and technocrats, The New York Times reported on March 30.

Syria: New Transitional Government Includes Minorities but Maintains Status Quo

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with his counterpart in Japan, pledging to upgrade the U.S. military command in Japan and accelerate joint missile production while noting that "Japan is our indispensable partner in deterring communist Chinese military aggression," Reuters reported on March 30.

Japan, Taiwan, U.S.: Hegseth Champions Japan, Pentagon Prioritizes Taiwan

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

Canada's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast

Le Pen's Five-Year Political Ban Sets the Stage for Renewed Political Instability in France

Bolivia's Socioeconomic Crisis Will Spiral Ahead of Its Presidential Election

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Taiwan: Latest Drill Practices Blockade in Response to Lai's '17 Strategies'

South Korea: Court Decision on Yoon's Impeachment Due April 4, Police Prepare

Peru: Deregulation Push to Marginally Improve Business Environment Despite Lingering Political Risks

U.K.: London Unlikely To Escape U.S. Tariffs, But Negotiations Will Continue

Russia: Arctic LNG 2 Terminal Resumes Flaring

Russia: Moscow Orders Highest Conscription Since 2011

Niger: Government Announces Withdrawal From Regional Joint Force

Japan: Diet Passes Budget, Shows Policymaking Slowdown and Prime Minister's Stakes

Syria: New Transitional Government Includes Minorities but Maintains Status Quo

Japan, Taiwan, U.S.: Hegseth Champions Japan, Pentagon Prioritizes Taiwan

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